Can the teals repeat the success of 2022 at the upcoming election? (23 Apr 2025)
Article summary: In a striking moment in the House of Representatives, independent MP Zali Steggall stood alone as Coalition MPs heckled her during a heated debate. Her challenge to the opposition’s conduct triggered an unexpected show of support: female Labor MPs, led by Jo Ryan and Tanya Plibersek, and fellow teal independents crossed the floor to stand with her.
"We could barely hear her," Plibersek later said, describing the intense noise directed at Steggall. This moment highlighted the disruptive influence the so-called “teal” independents have had on traditional party dynamics since their 2022 election breakthrough.
Among the teals, Kate Chaney is contesting one of the more closely watched races. Having secured Curtin in 2022 with just 29% of first preferences — aided by a significant drop in the Liberal vote and strong preference flows — she now faces former Uber executive Tom White, who has returned from South Korea to contest the seat for the Liberals.
While Curtin is considered one of the more marginal teal seats alongside Goldstein, Kooyong, and Mackellar, Chaney has built a strong local profile and campaign network that will be crucial as the contest intensifies.
The teal wave began with Steggall’s election and gained traction from Cathy McGowan’s earlier community-based campaign in Indi. This model, dubbed “Voices For Indi,” laid the groundwork for independent candidacies rooted in grassroots engagement.
Their rise was catalysed by dissatisfaction with the Morrison government and the Liberal Party’s rightward shift, especially after Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting. Although their success was seen by some as an anti-Morrison reaction, research shows most teal voters were tactical Labor or Greens supporters rather than disillusioned Liberals.
While the teals share core commitments to climate action, integrity in politics, and women’s representation, they diverge on certain issues — most notably their varied stances on the Israel-Gaza conflict. Their political impact, however, remains significant.
Despite Labor's majority, the teals have drawn outsized media attention. Prime Minister Albanese’s decision to cut their staff and team with the Coalition on donation reforms fostered early tension, even as his ministers now brief the crossbench regularly.
Looking ahead to the 2025 election, the possibility of a hung parliament looms, raising the stakes for the teals and the major parties alike. Climate 200, the funding body behind many teal campaigns, is again investing heavily, eyeing potential upsets in Wannon, Bradfield, and Cowper. These seats, along with others in Victoria, Queensland, and WA, could shift with strong preference flows if Coalition votes fall below critical thresholds.
The teals now control four former prime ministerial seats, symbolic of their disruption to the political status quo. Kate Chaney’s Curtin is one of those seats — named after WA’s only prime minister — and its outcome will be closely watched as a bellwether of whether the 2022 election was a one-off or a lasting transformation.
As Malcolm Turnbull wrote, the Liberal Party risks long-term irrelevance if it continues to alienate its centrist base.
