Package teal: The independent movement, three years on (18 May 2025)
Article summary: The 2025 federal election delivered a complex outcome for Australia’s teal independents, with mixed results that challenge the narrative of continued momentum from their 2022 breakthrough. While the broader political story was Labor’s resounding victory and the Coalition’s severe decline, the future and influence of the Climate 200-backed independents—many of whom unseated key Liberal figures in wealthy inner-city seats three years earlier—was a subtler tale.
Kate Chaney, the teal MP for Curtin in Western Australia, remains emblematic of the movement’s centrist, reform-minded ethos. A former corporate executive and the niece of ex-Liberal deputy leader Fred Chaney, she symbolises the schism between traditional Liberal moderates and the party's more conservative recent trajectory. As political analyst Professor Mark Kenny notes, Chaney and figures like Allegra Spender represent “progressive social positions and more free-market traditional liberal economic positions,” yet have found their political home outside the modern Liberal Party.
Despite teals maintaining several key seats—including Steggall in Warringah, Spender in Wentworth, and Scamps in Mackellar—only seven of 35 Climate 200-supported candidates were successful in 2025, all incumbents. The movement’s expansion stalled, particularly in Victoria, where Monique Ryan narrowly held Kooyong and Zoe Daniel likely lost Goldstein to former Liberal MP Tim Wilson in a tightly contested rematch.
Wilson’s campaign targeted localised issues and took advantage of Goldstein’s large Jewish population, in contrast to Daniel’s broader policy focus.
In New South Wales, teals consolidated their positions. Chaney’s seat of Curtin appears secure indicating her continued electoral strength. The only major setback for the teals in NSW was Kylea Tink’s departure due to the abolition of North Sydney.
Beyond metropolitan areas, the movement failed to penetrate. In regional Victoria and Queensland, Climate 200-backed independents were unable to unseat entrenched Nationals or Liberals, reaffirming the resilience of conservative support in non-urban electorates. Helen Haines held Indi, but other new candidates could not replicate her success.
Simon Holmes à Court, the financial backer of Climate 200, acknowledged the mixed outcome, attributing it partly to voter preference for stability over change. Despite strong campaigns and growing national votes for independents, he admitted: “Politics is brutal… there’s no silver medal.”
Psephologist Kevin Bonham argued that their core issues from 2022—climate, integrity, gender—had receded in voter priority. Yet analysts like Kenny insist their presence still matters. They force the Liberals to reckon with their lost moderate base, challenging them to reclaim inner-city voters or risk permanent marginalisation.
Ultimately, while Kate Chaney and her teal colleagues retain influence, the 2025 result signals a plateau rather than continued surge. Their future will depend on whether they can adapt to a changing political climate and whether the major parties evolve to recapture the political centre the teals now occupy.
Related article: Fred Chaney: The Liberal Party Has Lost Its Way (28 Apr 2025)
